Hi, I'm Jimmy the owner of HTS. My career background is in statistics and as a Military and Civilian research analyst. For years I was a normal track handicapper, I studied the program, looked at Jockeys, Trainers, Owners, Horse Speeds, Sprinters, Closers. Overall Speed, etc… I also played a ton of vertical bets, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers!. If I hit 3 out of ten races I thought that was a good day. I also paid money for those online tip sheets and found that a monkey picking numbers from a hat could do just as good if not better then the sheet I just paid $20 for to get me rich.
Something changed in 2015, a light came on, and I thought what if I did not pay any attention to the daily race programs, etc.. and just look for a consensus of only which horse will win the race? So I searched the internet and found 50-60 free websites with amateur and professional handicappers that listed their picks as to which horse will come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Of course if you ask 20 to 30 people who will win the race you get many different opinions. Hooray! that’s what I was looking for, if 20 people look at one race you will find that 70% of the people select the same horse to win and so on and so on.
Next, I assigned value to those assumptions and in a hierarchical/ordinal level of confidence. I looked at my Bible “The handbook of parametric and non-parametric statistical procedures” and there it was the “Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test” ….“Let X1, ... , XN be a set of N observations. The method presented here does not use the observations but rather the ranks of the observations. The rank of Xi among the N observations, denoted R(Xi), equals the number of X'j s ≤ xi. There are many cases where ranks are the observed values. For example, consider a contest where the judge has to rank the contests. It is also helpful to consider the ranks of the data where there are extreme outliers present” For more info see: https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat464/node/36
First, in order to run the test you need data. There are numerous people posting picks online. Next place their picks in order as to finish order. What you will find is a consensus of which horse will win and a decrease in value for the next horse OR sometimes it might be a tie. For example: if six horses enter a race and you use 20 different handicappers you might see ten people pick the #1 for first, five people pick the #2 for 1st and the remaining five people may pick the 3, 4 and 5 to finish first. Next look at who the handicappers pick for second…Again out of 20 handicappers ten people pick the # 1 and seven people pick the #2 and three people pick #3,4 and 5...again look at 3rd place and repeat the process.
So now you know how I get 3/4 of my numbers - the other 1/4 th of my data involves times and and distance averages per horse. Once you put the data together - BOOM! you get Horse Track Stats Selections!
Just a little info about my Handicapping Style:
Every handicapper has a different methodology or model that they use, I use a top heavy model with emphasis on the best 3-horses that could win the race. This sounds like what every handicapper does but it’s not, and here’s why. I look for the best 3 horses to win the race, where as other cappers look for a winner, a horse for 2nd and a horse for 3rd that is called vertical scaling. Vertical scaling is an art form but I feel vertical scaling will always lose you money (you can go a whole race card without a win) …unless that capper absolutely knows the track, jockey's and the horses very, very well.
What I do is the “top heavy” approach. The “top heavy’ approach is geared towards the Pk’3, 4, 5, and 6 selections. Since I ONLY look for winners I have a much better win percentage then most cappers, and my WPS percentage is very high. The upside to my capping is; if the track runs with speed I have a great day! The down side to the top heavy model is on average, I hit around 40% -60% with Exacta’s and less with Trifecta’s. With top heavy, if you bet EX and TRI it is best if you pick your spots as to which race to wager. Also, If the track has slow finish times, mud, rain or wind OR no speed I may hit less than 50% for EX and TRI.
Win big and have fun! - Jimmy